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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 17 games
65%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fng · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
57%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 26 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
46%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 19 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 18 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
450 picks · 722 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 676 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
416 picks · 333 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
406 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 523 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
400 picks · 882 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
376 picks · 169 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
375 picks · 180 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:18
Virtus.pro 61%1w Team 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
53% · 198 games48% · 116 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
45% · 125 games48% · 94 games
BrewmasterCloud
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyNoticed
48% · 250 games56% · 103 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Enigma
EnigmaFng
49% · 105 games44% · 413 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Batrider
Batridersayuw
53% · 242 games56% · 194 games
DisruptorRESPECT
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct29:39
Virtus.pro 62%1w Team 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 57:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKiritych
50% · 117 games52% · 98 games
BrewmasterCloud
Brewmaster
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSquad1x
52% · 173 games46% · 115 games
LifestealerMunkushi~
Lifestealer
Enigma
EnigmaNoticed
48% · 101 game50% · 50 games
Earth SpiritChira JUNIOR
Earth Spirit
Tiny
Tinysayuw
45% · 225 games44% · 413 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Batrider
BatriderFng
56% · 219 games56% · 159 games
DisruptorRESPECT
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 73%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2