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1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
1w Teamwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 30 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 23 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%
Windranger
Windranger
Squad1x · 20 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
63%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 34 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 21 game
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 599 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 379 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
352 picks · 135 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 452 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 159 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
309 picks · 576 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
306 picks · 588 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:23
Virtus.pro 47%1w Team 53%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKiritych
46% · 90 games47% · 142 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNoticed
53% · 168 games52% · 130 games
Dark SeerCloud
Dark Seer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSquad1x
40% · 26 games45% · 52 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Techies
TechiesAntares
48% · 144 games52% · 42 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Enigma
EnigmaFng
59% · 79 games52% · 141 game
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 53%
Series result1w Team 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1