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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
9Pandaswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 12 games
83%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 11 games
91%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
50%

9Pandas

Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 33 games
61%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 32 games
59%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 30 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 28 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 24 games
46%
Windranger
Windranger
kiyotaka · 23 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
245 picks · 293 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
242 picks · 111 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
234 picks · 263 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
208 picks · 275 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
208 picks · 443 bans
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
204 picks · 422 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
183 picks · 284 bans
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
180 picks · 176 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:34
Virtus.pro 56%9Pandas 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
52% · 126 games55% · 61 game
Linakiyotaka
Lina
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSquad1x
52% · 58 games44% · 103 games
MuertaV-Tune
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixFng
51% · 141 game43% · 65 games
Dragon KnightRAMZES666
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackNoticed
47% · 27 games44% · 30 games
BaneAfoninje
Bane
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
56% · 116 games50% · 209 games
TuskRodjER
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed36:34
Virtus.pro 55%9Pandas 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 48:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
63% · 8 games58% · 46 games
Wraith KingV-Tune
Wraith King
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSquad1x
49% · 78 games45% · 70 games
Dragon KnightRAMZES666
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
42% · 65 games48% · 98 games
Kunkkakiyotaka
Kunkka
Pugna
Pugnasayuw
55% · 80 games48% · 92 games
Shadow DemonAfoninje
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskFng
47% · 126 games60% · 51 game
WeaverRodjER
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 58%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2