The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
Techies
Fng · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 7 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 7 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 7 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
259 picks · 133 bans
Pangolier
198 picks · 409 bans
Vengeful Spirit
196 picks · 263 bans
Sven
177 picks · 253 bans
Beastmaster
172 picks · 361 bans
Dark Seer
169 picks · 314 bans
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
Skywrath Mage
166 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:42
Virtus.pro 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by beastcoast in 47:43.
Game 2prediction correct64:29
Virtus.pro 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 48:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2