PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 1:0series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Cicade de Deusloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 23 games
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 18 games
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
Cicade de Deus
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
398 picks · 357 bans
Snapfire
352 picks · 181 bans
Puck
346 picks · 867 bans
Pugna
302 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 796 bans
Warlock
280 picks · 133 bans
Batrider
273 picks · 686 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Virtus.pro 96%Cicade de Deus 4%
The model gave 96% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 96%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1