Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CIS Rejectsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 13 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 8 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 8 games
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
428 picks · 271 bans
Mars
410 picks · 554 bans
Tiny
371 picks · 434 bans
Death Prophet
343 picks · 706 bans
Ember Spirit
309 picks · 454 bans
Sand King
309 picks · 413 bans
Pangolier
272 picks · 402 bans
Storm Spirit
260 picks · 404 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:36
Virtus.pro 57%CIS Rejects 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 52:54.
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Virtus.pro 57%CIS Rejects 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:45.
Game 3prediction correct30:11
Virtus.pro 57%CIS Rejects 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 57%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3