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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Creepwaveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 17 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 12 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 11 games
73%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
86%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
71%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nightfall · 7 games
43%

Creepwave

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 9 games
44%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 7 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Malr1ne · 6 games
83%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MiLAN · 6 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Chuvash · 6 games
83%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 6 games
67%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
403 picks · 188 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
353 picks · 136 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
298 picks · 596 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
284 picks · 622 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 358 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
268 picks · 471 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
268 picks · 230 bans
54%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
260 picks · 426 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
Virtus.pro 57%Creepwave 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracgpK~
56% · 72 games37% · 103 games
Morphlingbzm
Morphling
Slark
SlarkNightfall
51% · 17 games48% · 157 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
52% · 82 games50% · 28 games
WeaverCrystallis
Weaver
Lion
LionSave-
57% · 122 games43% · 58 games
DisruptorChuvash
Disruptor
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern1ls
61% · 59 games50% · 6 games
BaneFishman
Bane
Game 2prediction correct30:18
Virtus.pro 55%Creepwave 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritgpK~
50% · 196 games47% · 114 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Juggernaut
JuggernautNightfall
50% · 109 games47% · 70 games
Kunkkabzm
Kunkka
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDM
52% · 118 games49% · 344 games
MarsATF
Mars
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern1ls
51% · 70 games57% · 110 games
Keeper of the LightChuvash
Keeper of the Light
Lion
LionSave-
48% · 156 games42% · 11 games
LichFishman
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2