Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Darksideloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Tiny
yamich · 21 game
Marcisignature
yamich · 14 games
Skywrath Mageoften banned
Xakoda · 14 games
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
DM · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
363 picks · 347 bans
Tusk
349 picks · 338 bans
Mirana
249 picks · 246 bans
Rubick
230 picks · 186 bans
Crystal Maiden
228 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
208 picks · 549 bans
Leshrac
204 picks · 424 bans
Snapfire
202 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Darkside
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:10
Virtus.pro 46%Darkside 54%
The model gave 54% on Darkside — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 47:05.
Game 2prediction missed18:10
Virtus.pro 46%Darkside 54%
The model gave 54% on Darkside — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteDarkside · 54%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2