BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Tiny
yamich · 24 games
Marcisignature
yamich · 22 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 16 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 15 games
Doomsignature
DM · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 13 games
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
DM · 12 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
364 picks · 350 bans
Tusk
339 picks · 325 bans
Pangolier
232 picks · 568 bans
Snapfire
226 picks · 123 bans
Marci
221 picks · 444 bans
Undying
220 picks · 389 bans
Mirana
218 picks · 221 bans
Crystal Maiden
215 picks · 146 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:36
Virtus.pro 38%Entity 62%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 51:09.
Game 2prediction missed32:12
Virtus.pro 38%Entity 62%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:18.
Game 3prediction missed42:16
Virtus.pro 38%Entity 62%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 62%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3