Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eex-Monaspaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
sayuw · 20 games
Miranasignature
sayuw · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 17 games
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 14 games
ex-Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
714 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
590 picks · 512 bans
Beastmaster
489 picks · 1213 bans
Doom
487 picks · 933 bans
Ember Spirit
433 picks · 1095 bans
Pangolier
421 picks · 875 bans
Mirana
409 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
405 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:20
Virtus.pro 65%ex-Monaspa 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:45.
Game 2prediction correct33:16
Virtus.pro 65%ex-Monaspa 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2