Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 12 · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 3:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Banesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
gpK~ · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 11 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 9 games
Snapfire
Xakoda · 9 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 27 games
Banesignature
tOfu · 24 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 21 game
Weaveroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
Marssignature
Ace · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 17 games
Grimstroke
tOfu · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
564 picks · 463 bans
Mars
437 picks · 674 bans
Dragon Knight
415 picks · 531 bans
Bane
392 picks · 265 bans
Puck
380 picks · 842 bans
Pangolier
341 picks · 565 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 642 bans
Snapfire
328 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:22
Virtus.pro 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 48:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
ViperAce
TimbersawDM
Ember SpiritBOOM
LeshracgpK~
Razordyrachyo
DazzleXakoda
EnchantressSeleri
Tuskyamich
ClockwerktOfu
Game 2prediction correct11:20
Virtus.pro 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 17:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperRAMZES666
BeastmasterAce
InvokergpK~
Batriderdyrachyo
TimbersawDM
Storm SpiritBOOM
Winter WyvernXakoda
WeavertOfu
Marciyamich
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Game 3prediction missed21:47
Virtus.pro 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusgpK~
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
SniperRAMZES666
BeastmasterAce
VenomancerDM
Void SpiritBOOM
Marciyamich
EnchantressSeleri
Ogre MagiXakoda
ClockwerktOfu
Game 4prediction correct46:26
Virtus.pro 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritgpK~
PuckBOOM
JuggernautRAMZES666
Dawnbreakerdyrachyo
DoomDM
Legion CommanderAce
Skywrath Mageyamich
TusktOfu
MarciXakoda
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Game 5prediction correct35:26
Virtus.pro 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautRAMZES666
Alchemistdyrachyo
DoomDM
Ember SpiritBOOM
BatridergpK~
DawnbreakerAce
Skywrath Mageyamich
ClockwerktOfu
MarciXakoda
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 51%
Series resultVirtus.pro 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 5