Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gambit Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 12 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 7 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 7 games
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 7 games
Gambit Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
440 picks · 266 bans
Mars
402 picks · 554 bans
Tiny
348 picks · 406 bans
Death Prophet
331 picks · 667 bans
Ember Spirit
297 picks · 433 bans
Sand King
291 picks · 380 bans
Weaver
280 picks · 333 bans
Templar Assassin
255 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:19
Virtus.pro 50%Gambit Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:30.
Game 2prediction correct12:36
Virtus.pro 50%Gambit Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Gambit Esports in 35:24.
Game 3prediction missed36:30
Virtus.pro 50%Gambit Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 53:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 50%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3