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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
GamerLegionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 33 games
39%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 23 games
35%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 20 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 20 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 20 games
45%

GamerLegion

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 25 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 24 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 22 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 20 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
533 picks · 326 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
499 picks · 586 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 363 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
399 picks · 217 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
394 picks · 290 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 871 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 311 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 851 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% GamerLegion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:23
Virtus.pro 50%GamerLegion 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistTimado
47% · 74 games48% · 157 games
UrsaGhost
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
44% · 356 games52% · 248 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
53% · 215 games58% · 79 games
LargoFayde
Largo
Lich
LichFly
48% · 45 games48% · 92 games
GrimstrokeBignum
Grimstroke
Lion
LionHellscream
49% · 112 games51% · 226 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed6:34
Virtus.pro 52%GamerLegion 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTimado
50% · 218 games48% · 110 games
LifestealerGhost
Lifestealer
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
51% · 237 games59% · 289 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
43% · 246 games63% · 244 games
SlardarFayde
Slardar
Rubick
RubickHellscream
49% · 209 games43% · 95 games
TechiesBignum
Techies
Lich
LichFly
39% · 44 games50% · 216 games
Shadow DemonSpeeed
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed8:38
Virtus.pro 53%GamerLegion 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
50% · 96 games54% · 120 games
LunaGhost
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
49% · 349 games56% · 554 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyTimado
51% · 416 games52% · 264 games
UnderlordFayde
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHellscream
52% · 440 games46% · 296 games
RubickSpeeed
Rubick
Lich
LichFly
46% · 68 games42% · 135 games
TechiesBignum
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 54%
Series resultGamerLegion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3