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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 15 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
80%
Bane
Banesignature
Save- · 8 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Nightfall · 8 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DM · 7 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 7 games
71%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
308 picks · 441 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
273 picks · 202 bans
60%
Monkey King
Monkey King
271 picks · 680 bans
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
263 picks · 406 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
245 picks · 510 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
238 picks · 132 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
213 picks · 248 bans
45%
Lina
Lina
212 picks · 472 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:26
Virtus.pro 56%HellRaisers 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 40:52.
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Virtus.pro 56%HellRaisers 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:22.
Game 3prediction missed11:29
Virtus.pro 56%HellRaisers 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 40:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 56%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3