Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Tiny
sayuw · 21 game
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
Rubick
sayuw · 13 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 11 games
Mirana
sayuw · 11 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
krylat · 11 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 10 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
750 picks · 472 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 453 bans
Tiny
530 picks · 386 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 578 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 593 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 261 bans
Death Prophet
374 picks · 623 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 748 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:23
Virtus.pro 50%HellRaisers 50%
The model gave 50% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 31:03.
Game 2prediction correct11:30
Virtus.pro 50%HellRaisers 50%
The model gave 50% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 35:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 50%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2