?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 12 games
42%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 8 games
88%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 7 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Pure~ · 7 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 6 games
67%

Hydra

Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 30 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 27 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
54%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 23 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 19 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 262 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
405 picks · 554 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
333 picks · 383 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
332 picks · 644 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
291 picks · 359 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 421 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
281 picks · 349 bans
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin
264 picks · 560 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:28
Virtus.pro 56%Hydra 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetgpK~
46% · 238 games48% · 109 games
Chaos KnightKami
Chaos Knight
Razor
RazorPure~
58% · 176 games49% · 301 game
PangolierAskold
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDM
46% · 222 games47% · 306 games
TidehunterBlizzy
Tidehunter
Mirana
Miranayamich
52% · 296 games47% · 283 games
HoodwinkMuka
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneXakoda
61% · 314 games47% · 247 games
EnchantressZayac
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed22:27
Virtus.pro 56%Hydra 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Hydra in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
54% · 228 games53% · 151 game
MedusaKami
Medusa
Leshrac
LeshracPure~
62% · 137 games33% · 67 games
ViperBlizzy
Viper
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightyamich
61% · 129 games50% · 154 games
Dragon KnightAskold
Dragon Knight
Axe
AxeDM
41% · 166 games43% · 204 games
HoodwinkMuka
Hoodwink
Undying
UndyingXakoda
54% · 57 games46% · 141 game
EnchantressZayac
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct54:15
Virtus.pro 55%Hydra 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritgpK~
55% · 318 games50% · 235 games
TinyKami
Tiny
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPure~
53% · 104 games49% · 202 games
PangolierAskold
Pangolier
Axe
AxeDM
42% · 121 game41% · 55 games
UnderlordBlizzy
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightyamich
50% · 164 games49% · 243 games
HoodwinkMuka
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXakoda
50% · 317 games57% · 289 games
BaneZayac
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3