ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Klim Sani4win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 16 games
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Noticed · 13 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 13 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 13 games
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
324 picks · 476 bans
Phoenix
279 picks · 424 bans
Grimstroke
262 picks · 447 bans
Lion
262 picks · 232 bans
Vengeful Spirit
254 picks · 160 bans
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 702 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 335 bans
Magnus
239 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 63%
Hero pool strength63% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:24
Virtus.pro 68%Klim Sani4 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 51:34.
Game 2prediction correct35:23
Virtus.pro 68%Klim Sani4 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:24.
Game 3prediction missed22:22
Virtus.pro 68%Klim Sani4 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 1:03:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 68%
Series resultKlim Sani4 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3