1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
HULIGANIloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 19 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 14 games
Grimstroke
sayuw · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 13 games
Tinysignature
sayuw · 13 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 12 games
HULIGANI
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 7 games
Hoodwink
OneJey · 7 games
Lunaoften banned
RAMZES666 · 7 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 6 games
Lion
Immersion · 6 games
Windrangeroften banned
RAMZES666 · 6 games
Dark Willow
Immersion · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 353 bans
Centaur Warrunner
356 picks · 561 bans
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 337 bans
Mars
341 picks · 516 bans
Techies
329 picks · 258 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 627 bans
Hoodwink
311 picks · 186 bans
Tiny
297 picks · 291 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 41%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:18
Virtus.pro 68%HULIGANI 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierSquad1x
SvenRAMZES666
Monkey KingKiritych
Invokerre1bl
TinyNoticed
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Nature's Prophetsayuw
HoodwinkOneJey
TechiesFng
Crystal MaidenPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 79%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1