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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 26 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 25 games
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 22 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 21 game
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 18 games
61%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
59%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 22 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 16 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 15 games
40%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 13 games
38%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
428 picks · 664 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
413 picks · 592 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 730 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
410 picks · 379 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
339 picks · 956 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total63% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
Virtus.pro 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKiritych
51% · 143 games52% · 42 games
Lycanv1olent-
Lycan
Zeus
ZeusSquad1x
47% · 62 games45% · 97 games
Dark SeerBb3px
Dark Seer
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderNoticed
55% · 64 games55% · 77 games
Void Spiritre1bl
Void Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
53% · 107 games46% · 136 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
48% · 118 games50% · 142 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct23:28
Virtus.pro 59%HULIGANI 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 48:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKiritych
48% · 103 games42% · 14 games
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
Shadow Fiend
Lina
LinaSquad1x
46% · 38 games54% · 51 game
Pudgere1bl
Pudge
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
61% · 45 games57% · 25 games
Night StalkerBb3px
Night Stalker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAntares
45% · 112 games45% · 138 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
56% · 83 games48% · 153 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 63%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2