The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Tinysignature
sayuw · 29 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
Batridersignature
sayuw · 22 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 22 games
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 20 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 25 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 20 games
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 19 games
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
Hoodwink
OneJey · 14 games
Leshracsignature
re1bl · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
444 picks · 690 bans
Crystal Maiden
433 picks · 201 bans
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 561 bans
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 419 bans
Batrider
356 picks · 622 bans
Rubick
356 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 881 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 655 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total70% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Virtus.pro 61%HULIGANI 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistKiritych
Chaos Knightv1olent-
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spiritre1bl
TidehunterNoticed
UnderlordBb3px
TinyAntares
RubickPanto
Crystal MaidenFng
Dark WillowOneJey
Game 2prediction missed28:43
Virtus.pro 62%HULIGANI 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:08:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaKiritych
Chaos Knightv1olent-
BrewmasterNoticed
Earth Spiritre1bl
Void SpiritSquad1x
Dark SeerBb3px
PhoenixFng
TinyOneJey
BatriderAntares
RubickPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 70%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2