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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 13 games
85%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fng · 12 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 9 games
78%
Spectre
Spectresignature
Kiritych · 9 games
78%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 9 games
78%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
69%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 13 games
85%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
83%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 12 games
58%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Daxak · 12 games
58%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
OwnedMe · 11 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
swedenstrong · 11 games
36%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
278 picks · 381 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
246 picks · 114 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
221 picks · 489 bans
59%
Muerta
Muerta
214 picks · 318 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
208 picks · 307 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 417 bans
58%
Kunkka
Kunkka
187 picks · 475 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
187 picks · 352 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
Virtus.pro 64%Level UP 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 26:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKiritych
41% · 52 games57% · 6 games
SlardarStojkov
Slardar
Dazzle
DazzleNoticed
46% · 18 games47% · 90 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Invoker
InvokerSquad1x
47% · 56 games53% · 83 games
SpectreFocus
Spectre
Tiny
Tinysayuw
50% · 232 games54% · 384 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFng
56% · 205 games
Game 2prediction correct32:11
Virtus.pro 61%Level UP 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaKiritych
49% · 71 game56% · 86 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
43% · 117 games56% · 193 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
47% · 255 games44% · 146 games
TidehunterDavai
Tidehunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
49% · 86 games47% · 356 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFng
59% · 252 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 72%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2