Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Mind Gameswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 13 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 11 games
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 8 games
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
431 picks · 272 bans
Mars
420 picks · 561 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 439 bans
Death Prophet
343 picks · 715 bans
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 461 bans
Sand King
313 picks · 430 bans
Pangolier
274 picks · 414 bans
Storm Spirit
270 picks · 411 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:25
Virtus.pro 73%Mind Games 27%
The model gave 73% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:56.
Game 2prediction correct19:7
Virtus.pro 73%Mind Games 27%
The model gave 73% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 73%
Series resultMind Games 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2