Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Monaspawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Marcisignature
yamich · 24 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 20 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 18 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Templar Assassinsignature
RAMZES666 · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
DM · 12 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 238 bans
Marci
342 picks · 567 bans
Undying
289 picks · 502 bans
Tusk
261 picks · 169 bans
Pangolier
254 picks · 408 bans
Primal Beast
247 picks · 501 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 285 bans
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 68%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:31
Virtus.pro 54%Monaspa 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Monaspa in 40:41.
Game 2prediction correct37:14
Virtus.pro 54%Monaspa 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:08.
Game 3prediction missed27:35
Virtus.pro 54%Monaspa 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Monaspa in 50:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 54%
Series resultMonaspa 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3