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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 36 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 21 game
43%
Muerta
Muerta
Timado · 20 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 18 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 17 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Hellscream · 15 games
60%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 58 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 38 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 34 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 31 game
74%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 30 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 29 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
643 picks · 691 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
523 picks · 456 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 420 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
428 picks · 424 bans
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 1109 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 864 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
387 picks · 172 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:18
Virtus.pro 40%MOUZ 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
56% · 119 games53% · 58 games
LunaCrystallis
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
42% · 179 games44% · 66 games
ViperLorenof
Viper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
45% · 81 game47% · 142 games
DoomBOOM
Doom
Venomancer
VenomancerFly
57% · 47 games54% · 145 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickHellscream
52% · 84 games54% · 99 games
Earthshakeryamich
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction correct17:34
Virtus.pro 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkTimado
55% · 82 games51% · 304 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarSabeRLight-
47% · 236 games47% · 105 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Puck
PuckAbed
55% · 394 games49% · 48 games
AlchemistCrystallis
Alchemist
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
47% · 108 games49% · 434 games
Jakiroaik
Jakiro
Leshrac
LeshracHellscream
48% · 174 games52% · 103 games
Lionyamich
Lion
Game 3prediction missed35:37
Virtus.pro 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 54:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
50% · 109 games48% · 297 games
BeastmasterLorenof
Beastmaster
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
55% · 140 games53% · 100 games
Faceless VoidCrystallis
Faceless Void
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAbed
43% · 280 games51% · 197 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Venomancer
VenomancerFly
55% · 65 games49% · 120 games
Rubickyamich
Rubick
Tusk
TuskHellscream
51% · 547 games47% · 427 games
Jakiroaik
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3