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PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 36 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Timado · 22 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 21 game
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 19 games
32%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Abed · 18 games
44%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 59 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 35 games
51%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 30 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 29 games
45%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 29 games
72%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 28 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 571 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
521 picks · 415 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
467 picks · 411 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
460 picks · 523 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
452 picks · 228 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 250 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1035 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 902 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total58% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:19
Virtus.pro 46%MOUZ 54%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
44% · 88 games49% · 398 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
49% · 136 games54% · 331 game
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckAbed
54% · 430 games47% · 135 games
BrewmasterBOOM
Brewmaster
Silencer
SilencerFly
52% · 109 games57% · 58 games
Grimstrokeyamich
Grimstroke
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHellscream
48% · 340 games48% · 181 game
Dazzleaik
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct6:28
Virtus.pro 49%MOUZ 51%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTimado
48% · 261 game46% · 437 games
BeastmasterLorenof
Beastmaster
Puck
PuckAbed
51% · 412 games49% · 432 games
TinyCrystallis
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
47% · 242 games47% · 129 games
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHellscream
54% · 354 games52% · 290 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
49% · 145 games56% · 126 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Game 3prediction correct12:30
Virtus.pro 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 50:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyTimado
46% · 295 games57% · 25 games
Lone DruidCrystallis
Lone Druid
Invoker
InvokerAbed
47% · 78 games50% · 310 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
43% · 110 games51% · 223 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
49% · 173 games51% · 71 game
Venomanceraik
Venomancer
Rubick
RubickHellscream
50% · 106 games57% · 133 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 58%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3