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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
1ls · 4 games
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 4 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nightfall · 4 games
100%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Save- · 3 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
DM · 3 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
DM · 3 games
67%

Natus Vincere

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
83%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 4 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 3 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
RodjER · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 652 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
305 picks · 374 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
258 picks · 448 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 198 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
215 picks · 109 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
208 picks · 622 bans
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
203 picks · 302 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
202 picks · 412 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:10
Virtus.pro 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
53% · 15 games40% · 17 games
SlarkV-Tune
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
39% · 14 games51% · 15 games
InvokerIceberg
Invoker
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
51% · 23 games64% · 19 games
AlchemistGeneRaL
Alchemist
Lion
LionSave-
58% · 11 games53% · 7 games
ChenRodjER
Chen
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor1ls
43% · 22 games51% · 27 games
Crystal MaidenALWAYSWANNAFLY
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct25:16
Virtus.pro 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNightfall
53% · 56 games42% · 42 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
58% · 24 games46% · 26 games
Queen of PainIceberg
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death ProphetgpK~
54% · 61 game44% · 46 games
ClockwerkGeneRaL
Clockwerk
Oracle
Oracle1ls
53% · 39 games47% · 72 games
PhoenixRodjER
Phoenix
Lion
LionSave-
58% · 16 games50% · 10 games
DisruptorALWAYSWANNAFLY
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 60%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2