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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 27 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 22 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 18 games
61%

Natus Vincere

Lion
Lion
Zayac · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nefrit · 11 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
45%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Sancity · 11 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 220 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
433 picks · 668 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
414 picks · 595 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 380 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 737 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
373 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
339 picks · 961 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total53% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed51:12
Virtus.pro 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusSquad1x
46% · 105 games50% · 246 games
TinyYuragi
Tiny
Weaver
WeaverKiritych
58% · 92 games44% · 177 games
Ember SpiritSancity
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickAntares
48% · 314 games45% · 41 game
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderNoticed
57% · 73 games49% · 166 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
56% · 192 games47% · 146 games
DisruptorMalady
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed37:19
Virtus.pro 47%Natus Vincere 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerKiritych
53% · 90 games49% · 84 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSquad1x
56% · 13 games49% · 84 games
WeaverYuragi
Weaver
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
53% · 87 games45% · 127 games
Dragon KnightSancity
Dragon Knight
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAntares
52% · 170 games52% · 80 games
Treant ProtectorMalady
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFng
52% · 144 games42% · 129 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 53%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2