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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Antares · 9 games
78%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 8 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 7 games
29%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 6 games
83%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 6 games
67%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 13 games
46%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Malady · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 513 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
397 picks · 322 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 384 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 569 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
344 picks · 166 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
335 picks · 421 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 768 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
313 picks · 467 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total51% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:29
Virtus.pro 51%Natus Vincere 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageNande
56% · 29 games50% · 272 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
43% · 94 games53% · 203 games
PuckSancity
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackNoticed
50% · 155 games49% · 178 games
Monkey KingBOOM
Monkey King
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
49% · 272 games54% · 218 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Batrider
Batriderjesv
48% · 416 games54% · 95 games
Ogre MagiKaori
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed42:13
Virtus.pro 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNande
47% · 193 games52% · 334 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinySquad1x
49% · 422 games43% · 121 game
Earth SpiritSancity
Earth Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
53% · 171 game53% · 179 games
MagnusBOOM
Magnus
Undying
UndyingRein
45% · 55 games51% · 248 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Dark Willow
Dark Willowjesv
48% · 276 games56% · 235 games
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct27:35
Virtus.pro 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 48:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNande
57% · 153 games53% · 337 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Doom
DoomNoticed
51% · 218 games46% · 162 games
LinaSancity
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
46% · 301 game43% · 219 games
RazorBOOM
Razor
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
49% · 258 games53% · 158 games
Nyx AssassinQBFY
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanjesv
45% · 56 games56% · 110 games
Ogre MagiKaori
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3