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FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 27 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 23 games
52%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 21 game
62%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 18 games
61%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
53%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Kiritych · 16 games
56%

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 14 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 11 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 11 games
55%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 224 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 629 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
409 picks · 711 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 361 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 573 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
371 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
361 picks · 776 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
334 picks · 942 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:25
Virtus.pro 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 56:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSquad1x
52% · 130 games56% · 103 games
Naga SirenMiracle-
Naga Siren
Pudge
PudgeKiritych
48% · 41 game49% · 121 game
RazorSumaiL
Razor
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
56% · 68 games47% · 116 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressAntares
47% · 172 games59% · 93 games
ChenKuroKy
Chen
Phoenix
PhoenixFng
43% · 146 games44% · 124 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct19:14
Virtus.pro 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKiritych
47% · 304 games46% · 154 games
RazorSumaiL
Razor
Windranger
WindrangerSquad1x
50% · 174 games53% · 189 games
GyrocopterMiracle-
Gyrocopter
Slardar
SlardarNoticed
55% · 107 games50% · 272 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaAntares
56% · 183 games47% · 133 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Phoenix
PhoenixFng
49% · 201 game46% · 221 game
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed18:27
Virtus.pro 61%Nigma Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSquad1x
48% · 180 games53% · 130 games
Templar AssassinMiracle-
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
49% · 71 game53% · 156 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Juggernaut
JuggernautKiritych
41% · 39 games54% · 167 games
Primal BeastFbz
Primal Beast
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAntares
49% · 170 games39% · 32 games
VenomancerKuroKy
Venomancer
Pugna
PugnaFng
55% · 169 games48% · 144 games
GrimstrokeGH
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 75%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3