Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 3:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Daxak · 16 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
Daxak · 15 games
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
Silencersignature
Rein · 12 games
Nigma Galaxy
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 30 games
Phoenix
GH · 25 games
Tusk
OmaR · 25 games
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
Elder Titansignature
GH · 20 games
Tinysignature
OmaR · 20 games
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
520 picks · 599 bans
Ringmaster
470 picks · 237 bans
Jakiro
469 picks · 433 bans
Terrorblade
369 picks · 762 bans
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 505 bans
Ancient Apparition
338 picks · 786 bans
Tusk
322 picks · 294 bans
Windranger
307 picks · 94 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:7
Virtus.pro 42%Nigma Galaxy 58%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaV-Tune
MorphlingGhost
Dragon KnightLorenof
PuckSumaiL
Dark SeerDaxak
BristlebackNo!ob
Dark WillowAntares
Ancient ApparitionGH
TuskRein
WindrangerOmaR
Game 2prediction correct4:15
Virtus.pro 44%Nigma Galaxy 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 24:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckLorenof
BeastmasterNo!ob
TerrorbladeV-Tune
MorphlingGhost
EnigmaDaxak
KunkkaSumaiL
Nature's ProphetRein
UndyingGH
TuskAntares
MuertaOmaR
Game 3prediction missed28:22
Virtus.pro 45%Nigma Galaxy 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:08:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritLorenof
UrsaGhost
AbaddonV-Tune
KunkkaSumaiL
TidehunterDaxak
BeastmasterNo!ob
Ancient ApparitionRein
BatriderOmaR
Shadow ShamanAntares
Elder TitanGH
Game 4prediction missed39:14
Virtus.pro 46%Nigma Galaxy 54%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonV-Tune
MarciGhost
Ember SpiritLorenof
PuckSumaiL
Dark SeerDaxak
OmniknightNo!ob
BatriderAntares
IoGH
SilencerRein
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 63%
Series resultVirtus.pro 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4