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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Sorryloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 13 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 12 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 10 games
70%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
DM · 9 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
78%

No Sorry

Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 34 games
59%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 30 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 26 games
46%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
layme · 26 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 22 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 21 game
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 655 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 474 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
449 picks · 279 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
424 picks · 577 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 634 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
386 picks · 460 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
357 picks · 565 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 596 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:26
Virtus.pro 55%No Sorry 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaRAMZES666
54% · 133 games45% · 313 games
KunkkaKami
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
61% · 147 games45% · 359 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritgpK~
54% · 260 games41% · 57 games
UnderlordLastHero-
Underlord
Doom
Doomyamich
53% · 96 games44% · 137 games
Skywrath Magey0nd
Skywrath Mage
Bane
BaneXakoda
59% · 340 games42% · 110 games
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct38:18
Virtus.pro 53%No Sorry 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightRAMZES666
49% · 220 games54% · 161 game
Templar AssassinKami
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PaingpK~
48% · 385 games47% · 187 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
45% · 217 games47% · 354 games
MarsLastHero-
Mars
Enigma
Enigmayamich
61% · 49 games54% · 106 games
Rubicky0nd
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
49% · 275 games53% · 338 games
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 55%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2