?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 15 games
73%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
1ls · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DM · 7 games
29%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Save- · 7 games
71%

OG

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 8 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 6 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 6 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Topson · 6 games
50%
Riki
Rikisignature
Topson · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
406 picks · 200 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
393 picks · 591 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 902 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 202 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
358 picks · 336 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 226 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
280 picks · 383 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
257 picks · 346 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:10
Virtus.pro 67%OG 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingNightfall
57% · 108 games51% · 61 game
SpectreSumaiL
Spectre
Puck
PuckgpK~
43% · 245 games52% · 68 games
EarthshakerCeb
Earthshaker
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
49% · 76 games48% · 267 games
Void SpiritTopson
Void Spirit
Lion
LionSave-
48% · 94 games53% · 28 games
HoodwinkSaksa
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern1ls
63% · 29 games48% · 128 games
Elder Titann0tail
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct30:6
Virtus.pro 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 20:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
55% · 42 games50% · 61 game
InvokerTopson
Invoker
Viper
ViperNightfall
46% · 66 games54% · 49 games
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
Nature's Prophet
Kunkka
KunkkaDM
59% · 49 games51% · 46 games
AxeCeb
Axe
Enchantress
EnchantressSave-
47% · 111 games53% · 89 games
PhoenixSaksa
Phoenix
Abaddon
Abaddon1ls
50% · 100 games43% · 123 games
Grimstroken0tail
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 76%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2