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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
55%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 18 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 18 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 17 games
65%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 19 games
37%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 17 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shad · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
447 picks · 419 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
436 picks · 219 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 931 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
325 picks · 369 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
294 picks · 148 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 225 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
280 picks · 663 bans
52%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
280 picks · 852 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total52% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:18
Virtus.pro 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 46:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTimado
45% · 273 games57% · 252 games
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
45% · 324 games53% · 89 games
Shadow FiendShad
Shadow Fiend
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
50% · 158 games48% · 359 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroFly
43% · 272 games59% · 108 games
Naga SirenLelis
Naga Siren
Techies
TechiesAntares
43% · 17 games55% · 236 games
Monkey KingDaze
Monkey King
Game 2prediction missed9:38
Virtus.pro 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by OG in 39:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTimado
49% · 226 games48% · 165 games
AbaddonShad
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
54% · 225 games50% · 295 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
52% · 361 game47% · 376 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Techies
TechiesAntares
58% · 17 games50% · 138 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroFly
50% · 335 games46% · 190 games
SilencerLelis
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct31:35
Virtus.pro 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 46:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTimado
51% · 71 game53% · 180 games
Templar AssassinShad
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
52% · 288 games51% · 188 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderDaxak
49% · 335 games46% · 214 games
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Dawnbreaker
Techies
TechiesAntares
51% · 12 games55% · 186 games
DisruptorLelis
Disruptor
Jakiro
JakiroFly
41% · 156 games55% · 94 games
BaneDaze
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 52%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3