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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 20 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 16 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 14 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 13 games
46%

One Move

Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 17 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 11 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
693 picks · 599 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 488 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
450 picks · 1100 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
444 picks · 795 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1034 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
382 picks · 205 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 832 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
378 picks · 545 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 41%
Hero pool strength50% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:20
Virtus.pro 59%One Move 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 49:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
54% · 152 games51% · 184 games
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Terrorblade
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightKiritych
48% · 157 games44% · 215 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
53% · 551 game51% · 235 games
DoomAfterLife
Doom
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesayuw
49% · 223 games47% · 344 games
RubickGilgir
Rubick
Pugna
PugnaFng
49% · 107 games54% · 212 games
UndyingPanto
Undying
Game 2prediction correct23:22
Virtus.pro 58%One Move 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKiritych
55% · 64 games46% · 47 games
JuggernautMunkushi~
Juggernaut
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
55% · 91 game48% · 196 games
DoomAfterLife
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
54% · 303 games47% · 227 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Pugna
Pugnasayuw
54% · 68 games42% · 97 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneFng
56% · 97 games43% · 56 games
LichPanto
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2