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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fng · 13 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 12 games
58%
Underlord
Underlord
Noticed · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kiritych · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 8 games
75%

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 20 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 14 games
79%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 14 games
29%
Marci
Marci
not me · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 14 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
455 picks · 612 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
391 picks · 425 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 473 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
333 picks · 415 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
313 picks · 600 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
306 picks · 167 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 349 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
272 picks · 798 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:19
Virtus.pro 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
49% · 205 games50% · 277 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSquad1x
54% · 85 games64% · 34 games
SpectreWoE
Spectre
Doom
DoomNoticed
51% · 203 games53% · 182 games
Sand KingDifference
Sand King
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAntares
48% · 275 games50% · 341 game
Hoodwinknot me
Hoodwink
Tusk
Tuskaik
42% · 206 games47% · 140 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct34:21
Virtus.pro 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendKiritych
53% · 145 games45% · 150 games
GyrocopterWoE
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
57% · 141 game46% · 62 games
TerrorbladeSSS
Terrorblade
Dazzle
DazzleNoticed
51% · 50 games45% · 124 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAntares
55% · 108 games50% · 121 game
Muertanot me
Muerta
Tusk
Tuskaik
45% · 267 games53% · 254 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 64%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2