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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Antares · 8 games
75%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 7 games
100%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 6 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Squad1x · 6 games
83%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 23 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 20 games
40%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 15 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
400 picks · 508 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
390 picks · 310 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 380 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 562 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
335 picks · 161 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
332 picks · 406 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
323 picks · 750 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 435 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total70% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
Virtus.pro 63%One Move 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageNande
59% · 18 games48% · 16 games
SpectreWoE
Spectre
Bristleback
BristlebackNoticed
57% · 105 games42% · 315 games
PangolierSSS
Pangolier
Puck
PuckSquad1x
46% · 171 game54% · 109 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Chen
ChenRein
61% · 91 game47% · 26 games
Shadow Shamanprblms
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark Willowjesv
45% · 147 games49% · 66 games
LichJANTER
Lich
Game 2prediction missed18:36
Virtus.pro 58%One Move 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by One Move in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNande
40% · 223 games48% · 210 games
MedusaWoE
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingSquad1x
57% · 140 games47% · 326 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
46% · 333 games52% · 309 games
PuckDifference
Puck
Muerta
Muertajesv
48% · 160 games62% · 129 games
Nyx Assassinprblms
Nyx Assassin
Tusk
TuskRein
46% · 250 games55% · 132 games
Ogre MagiJANTER
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction correct43:40
Virtus.pro 63%One Move 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:13:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
52% · 232 games47% · 256 games
DoomWoE
Doom
Lifestealer
LifestealerNande
54% · 136 games52% · 186 games
MagnusSSS
Magnus
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
45% · 275 games52% · 129 games
SniperDifference
Sniper
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
46% · 323 games50% · 406 games
Batriderprblms
Batrider
Lion
Lionjesv
51% · 329 games50% · 318 games
PhoenixJANTER
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 70%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3