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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
paiN Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 32 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 26 games
42%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 25 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 24 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 21 game
81%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Fly · 18 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 18 games
33%

paiN Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Elmisho · 8 games
38%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Elmisho · 7 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 7 games
43%
Razor
Razoroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Scofield · 6 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
672 picks · 831 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
583 picks · 600 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
479 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
477 picks · 418 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1093 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 696 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1007 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 628 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 37%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% paiN Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:26
Virtus.pro 50%paiN Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on paiN Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 47:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
42% · 339 games42% · 109 games
LunaWits
Luna
Razor
RazorTimado
51% · 98 games51% · 217 games
Sand KingDarkMago
Sand King
Largo
LargoSabeRLight-
52% · 89 games53% · 447 games
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanHellscream
55% · 229 games56% · 440 games
Shadow DemonElmisho
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroFly
46% · 569 games51% · 111 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct34:26
Virtus.pro 50%paiN Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 55:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerAbed
50% · 156 games43% · 96 games
LunaWits
Luna
Muerta
MuertaTimado
51% · 192 games48% · 263 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
48% · 142 games52% · 97 games
EnigmaFrank
Enigma
Jakiro
JakiroFly
49% · 646 games48% · 593 games
WarlockElmisho
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHellscream
57% · 303 games53% · 390 games
Shadow ShamanScofield
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN Gaming · 51%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2