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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 23 games
52%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 18 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
47%

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 13 games
77%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 13 games
54%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 10 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 8 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
397 picks · 357 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 181 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 865 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
300 picks · 346 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 796 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 132 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 683 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:33
Virtus.pro 59%Pipsqueak+4 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 21:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTimado
53% · 143 games67% · 8 games
MeepoNande
Meepo
Lycan
LycanDaxak
49% · 95 games42% · 90 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
53% · 176 games43% · 242 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Chen
ChenFly
60% · 113 games42% · 115 games
PugnaKaori
Pugna
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
53% · 15 games57% · 87 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct30:4
Virtus.pro 63%Pipsqueak+4 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 23:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTimado
48% · 40 games45% · 118 games
SvenNande
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
50% · 156 games41% · 263 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
55% · 304 games45% · 108 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Snapfire
SnapfireAntares
50% · 211 games48% · 168 games
PugnaKaori
Pugna
Chen
ChenFly
63% · 130 games52% · 184 games
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct24:23
Virtus.pro 58%Pipsqueak+4 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherTimado
45% · 34 games52% · 141 game
Shadow FiendNande
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
46% · 208 games47% · 84 games
Leshracxn丶e
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
43% · 116 games50% · 96 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Snapfire
SnapfireAntares
47% · 161 game57% · 121 game
Naga SirenKidaro
Naga Siren
Dazzle
DazzleFly
60% · 62 games53% · 139 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 70%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3