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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 34 games
41%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 22 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Hellscream · 18 games
33%
Muerta
Muerta
Timado · 16 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 16 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 14 games
57%

Pipsqueak+4

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
aik · 41 game
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 36 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 35 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 35 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 31 game
48%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Palantimos · 30 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 28 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 27 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
670 picks · 809 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
555 picks · 545 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
498 picks · 414 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
462 picks · 322 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 1129 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 607 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 666 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
387 picks · 1018 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total66% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:39
Virtus.pro 58%Pipsqueak+4 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTimado
53% · 292 games49% · 99 games
LunaLowskill
Luna
Kez
Kezkiyotaka
48% · 131 game48% · 381 game
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
56% · 250 games43% · 131 game
BrewmasterMalik
Brewmaster
Jakiro
JakiroFly
52% · 629 games46% · 275 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickHellscream
55% · 84 games50% · 500 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct30:20
Virtus.pro 59%Pipsqueak+4 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaTimado
51% · 150 games52% · 13 games
MeepoLowskill
Meepo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
48% · 182 games44% · 381 game
PuckCopy
Puck
Earthshaker
Earthshakerkiyotaka
53% · 168 games49% · 97 games
DoomMalik
Doom
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
50% · 50 games53% · 264 games
HoodwinkZayac
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHellscream
54% · 319 games49% · 114 games
EnchantressSoNNeikO
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct35:22
Virtus.pro 55%Pipsqueak+4 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
45% · 93 games54% · 148 games
TidehunterMalik
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierSabeRLight-
38% · 180 games56% · 77 games
WeaverLowskill
Weaver
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightkiyotaka
49% · 113 games52% · 297 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Lion
LionHellscream
45% · 92 games67% · 54 games
Treant ProtectorZayac
Treant Protector
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
49% · 240 games49% · 142 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 66%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3