Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 11 games
Oraclesignature
1ls · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 6 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 6 games
Marsoften banned
DM · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
DM · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 4 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
435 picks · 983 bans
Void Spirit
417 picks · 579 bans
Death Prophet
365 picks · 708 bans
Mars
345 picks · 598 bans
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 302 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 194 bans
Grimstroke
302 picks · 272 bans
Phoenix
264 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 65%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:17
Virtus.pro 47%PuckChamp 53%
The model gave 53% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:44.
Game 2prediction missed30:6
Virtus.pro 47%PuckChamp 53%
The model gave 53% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 22:05.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 53%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2