DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quantum Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
Antares · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
Fng · 8 games
Underlord
Noticed · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Antares · 7 games
Batridersignature
Antares · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 6 games
Sand Kingsignature
Squad1x · 6 games
Quantum Team
Magnusoften banned
Rvze · 8 games
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 6 games
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
Dark Willow
Somnia · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
398 picks · 493 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 287 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 403 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 555 bans
Batrider
322 picks · 384 bans
Beastmaster
321 picks · 723 bans
Lion
311 picks · 147 bans
Phoenix
291 picks · 256 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
Virtus.pro 71%Quantum Team 29%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 20:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNande
TinyRvze
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Ursabashka
MagnusNoticed
ViperAnkou
ChenRein
LichFezor
Dark Willowjesv
Game 2prediction correct36:13
Virtus.pro 74%Quantum Team 26%
The model gave 74% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackNande
Svenbashka
BeastmasterNoticed
InvokerRvze
Earth SpiritSquad1x
PangolierAnkou
ChenRein
Shadow DemonFezor
Lionjesv
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 86%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2