Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 25 games
Tinysignature
sayuw · 24 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 21 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
Mirana
Fng · 17 games
Batridersignature
sayuw · 16 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 15 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 777 bans
Mars
450 picks · 710 bans
Techies
446 picks · 351 bans
Batrider
443 picks · 936 bans
Tiny
439 picks · 590 bans
Crystal Maiden
432 picks · 191 bans
Rubick
417 picks · 201 bans
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:24
Virtus.pro 82%Rest Farmers 18%
The model gave 82% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 50:05.
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Virtus.pro 82%Rest Farmers 18%
The model gave 82% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 82%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2