PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RSRog Starloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 30 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 24 games
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 18 games
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
Rog Star
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
408 picks · 368 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 188 bans
Puck
347 picks · 886 bans
Pugna
309 picks · 354 bans
Tusk
286 picks · 242 bans
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 808 bans
Warlock
281 picks · 136 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 688 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:27
Virtus.pro 93%Rog Star 7%
The model gave 93% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:05.
Game 2prediction correct37:23
Virtus.pro 93%Rog Star 7%
The model gave 93% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 93%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2