PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 12 games
Marcisignature
yamich · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 11 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 11 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 9 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
645 picks · 465 bans
Puck
443 picks · 964 bans
Dawnbreaker
377 picks · 451 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 189 bans
Mars
340 picks · 567 bans
Marci
328 picks · 649 bans
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 433 bans
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 591 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:32
Virtus.pro 69%Royal Never Give Up 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 32:56.
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Virtus.pro 69%Royal Never Give Up 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 22:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 69%
Accuracy by game1 of 2