ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
T1loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 17 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 12 games
Oraclesignature
1ls · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 10 games
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Marsoften banned
DM · 7 games
Windrangersignature
Save- · 7 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
417 picks · 193 bans
Mars
387 picks · 573 bans
Puck
383 picks · 874 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 205 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 328 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 232 bans
Centaur Warrunner
284 picks · 387 bans
Ancient Apparition
269 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:27
Virtus.pro 57%T1 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by T1 in 45:01.
Game 2prediction correct23:7
Virtus.pro 57%T1 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:00.
Game 3prediction correct35:27
Virtus.pro 57%T1 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 51:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 57%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3