The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Save- · 7 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
306 picks · 178 bans
Mars
283 picks · 404 bans
Lina
282 picks · 539 bans
Hoodwink
263 picks · 90 bans
Pangolier
259 picks · 376 bans
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 260 bans
Luna
227 picks · 327 bans
Tidehunter
223 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total71% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:36
Virtus.pro 71%T1 29%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by T1 in 40:19.
Game 2prediction missed17:45
Virtus.pro 71%T1 29%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by T1 in 33:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 71%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2