Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Empireloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
No games played over 6 months.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 4 games
Tusk
sayuw · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Petushara · 2 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
EcNart · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Petushara · 1 game
Chen
EcNart · 1 game
Clockwerk
sayuw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
111 picks · 234 bans
Mars
101 picks · 207 bans
Earth Spirit
95 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
83 picks · 139 bans
Phoenix
80 picks · 83 bans
Rubick
69 picks · 34 bans
Nyx Assassin
66 picks · 231 bans
Wraith King
65 picks · 67 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:6
Virtus.pro 44%Team Empire 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingNightfall
JuggernautSmiling Knight
Void SpiritgpK~
PugnaPetushara
TidehunterDM
Clockwerksayuw
LionSave-
GrimstrokeEcNart
Oracle1ls
Game 2prediction missed32:9
Virtus.pro 40%Team Empire 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 21:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaNightfall
LunaSmiling Knight
Monkey KinggpK~
AxePetushara
TidehunterDM
Phoenixsayuw
LionSave-
ClockwerkEcNart
Crystal Maiden1ls
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 63%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2