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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
48%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 18 games
78%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 12 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 12 games
75%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
50%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 27 games
85%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
74%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
84%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 17 games
82%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
82%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 16 games
88%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
371 picks · 324 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
332 picks · 479 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
327 picks · 315 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
273 picks · 393 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
264 picks · 362 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
264 picks · 180 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
259 picks · 143 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 474 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total66% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:14
Virtus.pro 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKiritych
47% · 102 games50% · 116 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
48% · 239 games52% · 158 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsayuw
53% · 183 games53% · 251 game
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsNoticed
42% · 110 games51% · 156 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Undying
UndyingFng
51% · 156 games55% · 109 games
LeshracSneyking
Leshrac
Game 2prediction correct11:30
Virtus.pro 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKiritych
48% · 101 game50% · 159 games
MedusaSkiter
Medusa
Doom
DoomNoticed
48% · 227 games49% · 109 games
MarsATF
Mars
Huskar
HuskarSquad1x
44% · 11 games59% · 64 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Pugna
Pugnasayuw
55% · 137 games47% · 123 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Mirana
MiranaFng
46% · 103 games53% · 124 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2