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The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nightfall · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Save- · 9 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 9 games
89%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 9 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 8 games
88%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 35 games
74%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 32 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
68%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 23 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
70%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 23 games
74%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
308 picks · 177 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
295 picks · 406 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
281 picks · 571 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 366 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 257 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
247 picks · 419 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
45%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
234 picks · 256 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 66%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total52% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:33
Virtus.pro 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
46% · 139 games55% · 124 games
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkagpK~
45% · 81 game46% · 146 games
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Invoker
Underlord
UnderlordDM
44% · 37 games55% · 184 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Lion
LionSave-
45% · 174 games55% · 68 games
WeaverMira
Weaver
Elder Titan
Elder Titan1ls
49% · 138 games60% · 47 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Game 2prediction missed34:15
Virtus.pro 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
50% · 90 games51% · 101 game
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Viper
VipergpK~
46% · 93 games52% · 122 games
LeshracTORONTOTOKYO
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierDM
50% · 174 games48% · 179 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Bane
BaneSave-
55% · 59 games45% · 78 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Elder Titan
Elder Titan1ls
54% · 159 games49% · 95 games
IoMiposhka
Io
Game 3prediction missed25:32
Virtus.pro 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 51:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNightfall
47% · 109 games49% · 130 games
TinyYatoro
Tiny
Invoker
InvokergpK~
48% · 147 games46% · 206 games
LinaTORONTOTOKYO
Lina
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
57% · 86 games55% · 82 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Phoenix
Phoenix1ls
47% · 205 games51% · 152 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Bane
BaneSave-
56% · 55 games47% · 32 games
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 52%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3