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1win Series Dota 2 Spring · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
48%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 15 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 14 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 14 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 12 games
75%

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
76%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 19 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 18 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 351 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 577 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 534 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
346 picks · 273 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 336 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 668 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
318 picks · 191 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
307 picks · 313 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total82% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:17
Virtus.pro 31%Team Spirit 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKiritych
53% · 192 games56% · 65 games
WeaverYatoro
Weaver
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
54% · 242 games51% · 247 games
DoomCollapse
Doom
Tiny
TinyNoticed
50% · 215 games47% · 252 games
Primal BeastLarl
Primal Beast
Leshrac
LeshracFng
50% · 135 games45% · 236 games
TerrorbladeMira
Terrorblade
Batrider
Batridersayuw
51% · 244 games46% · 228 games
UndyingMiposhka
Undying
Game 2prediction missed31:20
Virtus.pro 30%Team Spirit 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 47:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNoticed
46% · 217 games53% · 191 game
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
49% · 135 games49% · 64 games
LinaLarl
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
50% · 389 games51% · 198 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Leshrac
Leshracsayuw
49% · 116 games54% · 227 games
BatriderMiposhka
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
54% · 234 games46% · 411 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 82%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2